Washington, DC – Kerry-Edwards economic advisor Gene Sperling released the following statement today:

"In the last three months, the economic performance was disappointing for middle class families and below expectations: the results that have become the norm for the economy under President Bush. With lost manufacturing jobs, anemic private sector job growth, three straight months of declining consumer confidence and spiraling oil prices, most middle class families will find it hard to swallow the Bush Administration’s spin that this is the best economy of our life time. With today’s GDP report, it is now official that the President Bush is the first President since the 1930s to preside over declining real exports and business investment during his term. America’s middle class deserves a fresh start with a new economic plan from Senator Kerry that will focus on restoring fiscal discipline, tackling rising health care and energy costs, and providing incentives for good job creation in the United States."

THE FACTS:

Today George Bush is bragging about some new statistics, even though they came in lower than expected and demonstrate his historic failures on the economy. The American people know better – as evidenced by the fact that consumer confidence has fallen for three straight months.

GDP STATISTICS SHOW GEORGE BUSH’S HISTORIC ECONOMIC FAILURE

Investment down 0.5 percent under George Bush, the first decline of any president in 72 years. Business fixed investment has declined from $1,247.9 billion in 2000-Q4 to $1,241.7 billion in 2004-Q3, a 0.5 percent decline. In contrast, business fixed investment rose 106 percent under Bill Clinton. [Bureau of Economic Analysis]

Goods exports down 0.7 percent under George Bush, the first decline of any president in 72 years. Goods exports have declined from $798.9 billion in 2000-Q4 to $793.2 billion in 2004-Q3, a 0.7 percent decline. This is the first fall in goods exports under any president on record. In contrast, goods exports rose 85 percent under Bill Clinton. [Bureau of Economic Analysis]

THE ECONOMY WAS NOT WORKING FOR FAMILIES IN THE THIRD QUARTER

George Bush is bragging about the third quarter, but families know better: consumer confidence fell for three straight months. And for good reason: job growth was anemic, gas prices soared, and the homeownership rate experienced its biggest decline in over a decade.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index Fell for the Third Straight Month in A Row in October, to 92.8, from 96.8 in September. Consumer confidence fell for the third straight month in October to 92.8, its lowest level since March 2004. The current reading is 15 percent lower than its average during the 2001 recession (106.6) and 43 percent below far below the average for 1997-2000 (132.8). The share of respondents saying business conditions are “good” declined to only 21.7 percent while those saying conditions are “bad” increased. In October only 16.5% of respondents believed that there would be more jobs available in coming months.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey Registered a Sharp Decline in October, Falling To Its Lowest Level in 18 Months. The survey’s preliminary reading was down 6.7 points from 94.2 in September to 87.5 in October. This was the third straight month of decline; the last month to register a lower level of consumer confidence was April 2003. Consumers’ expectations about the economy are particularly bleak, with the expectations component of the index falling 10% in October to 79.6.

The economy only created 65,000 private-sector jobs per month. In the third quarter, the economy only created 65,000 jobs per month. Even with all the new government jobs, overall job growth still fell well short of the level needed to keep up with a growing population. In total, the economy has lost 1.6 million private-sector jobs under George Bush. [Bureau of Labor Statistics]

The economy lost 9,000 manufacturing jobs in the third quarter. The economy lost 9,000 manufacturing jobs in the third quarter, bringing the total manufacturing job loss under George Bush to 2.7 million. [Bureau of Labor Statistics]

Wages were down by the end of the third quarter. Real wages were $8.25 per hour in September 2004 – down from $8.30 in December 2003. [Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation-adjusted 1982 dollars]

Gas prices are up another 6 percent in the last three months. Gasoline prices have soared from $1.86 per gallon on July 26th to $1.98 per gallon on October 25th – a 6 percent increase. [Energy Information Agency]

The homeownership rate experienced its largest fall in over a decade. In 2004-Q3, the homeownership rate fell from 69.3 percent to 68.9 percent – a 0.4 percentage point decline. This is the largest fall since 1993-Q1. For Bush’s term as a whole, the growth in home ownership has slowed from the Clinton years. [Census, seasonally adjusted data]

GEORGE BUSH’S FAILED RECORD ON THE ECONOMY

1.6 million private-sector jobs lost under George Bush. George Bush has presided over the loss of 1.6 million private-sector jobs, making him the first job-loss president since Herbert Hoover. Manufacturing has been very hard hit, losing 2.7 million jobs. [BLS]

7 million jobs short of George Bush’s prediction. Annual projections in the 2002 Economic Report of the President implied 6.5 million new jobs between January 2001 and September 2004. Instead, we have lost 821,000 total jobs (including the government jobs we have added). As a result, we have fallen more than 7 million jobs short of the prediction made by President Bush in February of 2002 – after 9/11, the tech bubble, and the recession. [BLS and Economic Report of the President, 2002]

Jobs are shifting to lower-paying industries paying $8,848 less. On average, jobs in growing industries pay $8,848 less than jobs in shrinking industries – that is 27 percent less. [Analysis of BLS data from January 2001 through August 2004]

A record $490 billion trade deficit in 2003. The trade deficit last year was a record $490 billion in 2003, or 5 percent of GDP – also a record. Forty percent of our public debt is now held outside the United States; with more than 20 percent in Japan and China alone. [BEA & Census; Treasury]

Household income has declined $1,535 under President Bush – the first president in 72 years to see a decline each and every year of his term. Under President Bush, the typical family has seen its inflation-adjusted income drop by $1,535 from 2000 to 2004. Under President Clinton, the typical household saw its inflation-adjusted income rise by $5,489. [Census]

5.2 million more Americans without health insurance under President Bush – bringing the total uninsured to 45 million, the highest number on record. In 2003, an additional 1.4 million people joined the ranks of the uninsured. There are 5.2 million more people without health insurance than in 2000. In total, 45 million people are uninsured. [Census]

4.3 million more people in poverty under President Bush, bringing the total to 36 million. In 2003, an additional 1.3 million people fell into poverty. This brings the total increase in poverty since 2000 to 4.3 million, including 1.3 million children. This has partially reversed the progress under President Clinton, when 6.4 million people were lifted out of poverty. [Census]

Family health premiums are up 64 percent – the fastest increase on record. Between 2000 and 2004 the premium paid by employees for a family policy has gone up 64 percent. This is faster than the 11 percent increase from 1996 to 2000 and the fastest-four year increase on record. The total family premium is up more than $3,500. [Kaiser Family Foundation, Employer Health Benefits 2004]